when i wrote my original blog post last week on the S&P 500 being expensive, the S&P was at 934.70. it’s currently at 866 as i write this post.

isn’t it funny how sometimes it’s hard to follow your own advice? Had i shorted the S&P at that moment, trusting every valuation metric I discussed, I’d be up about $70 per share at this point.

This is also another reason why people can be overconfident. As I learned in the book fooled by randomness, I really had a 50% chance of being right or wrong. It’s the same odds as a coin toss. And also, had I been wrong, would I be writing a post about how wrong I was? You only seem to really hear about forecasts when they’re right. Otherwise, they drift into oblivion.